Has Microsoft set an expiration date for the 2000 MCSE certification? If not, when do you think it will expire this set of tests? Microsoft's policy is not to expire certifications, but rather to remove them from currency. That explains why NT 4.0 MCSEs are still allowed to call themselves MCSEs, even though the exams were discontinued in Feb. 2001. I imagine that within 12 months of release of the full set of Windows 2003 exams (or...
around October 2004), Microsoft will require its partners to upgrade their certifications to retain their partner status.
For companies not compelled to track exams so closely, my guess is that the big push into Windows 2003 certification won't really start until 2005, or about the same number of years after the release of Windows 2003 as between the release of Windows 2000 and the summer of 2002 (which is when sales of Windows 2000 products finally surpassed those for NT).
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