Forecast and Review: Palladium and security talk to mark 2003

Matthew A. DeBellis

SearchWindowsmanageabiltiy network management expert Tom Shinder says security will be the buzz at the water cooler and in board meetings next year. Palladium will drive the discussion,

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he says. The plan, proposed by Intel, AMD and Microsoft, aims to build security into personal computers and servers at the microprocessor level. This would let users filter spam and encrypt data on their PCs. What were the big issues of this past year?

Thomas Shinder: Unemployment in the Internet and networking industries. The huge build up and hype of the late 1990s led to a tremendous oversupply of technology workers.

Microsoft winning the antitrust suit brought by the government. Microsoft lost nothing in the suit other than some time and attorney fees. It will be business as usual in spite of whatever "oversight" there is of the company.

Windows XP setting sales records. Pretty amazing stuff when you consider they say copyright protection won't work in a consumer market. This can only mean bad things in the future for the consumer. What will be big issues next year?

Thomas Shinder: More jobs lost in the Internet and networking sectors.

The adverse effects Palladium will have on the computer industry in general will start to be discussed. MP3s and file sharing are the drivers of the PC market right now, and when Palladium turns off the spigot, the crashing of the PC hardware and software markets will make 1929 look like a minor correction.

Linux desktop penetration will be a major focus. It won't happen in a big way in 2003, but discussion on the subject will increase in both frequency and amplitude. Linux server rollouts will noticeably increase in the small- and medium-size business markets. Integration of Microsoft legacy client applications with Linux-based servers will be a major area of interest.

Security: More discussion on how security adversely affects functionality. What will be the hot technologies of 2003?

Thomas Shinder: Tablet PCs, Secure Wireless LANs, LindowsOS, Affordable DVRs

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